As the geopolitical landscape shifts toward a second Trump administration, the simmering conflict in the South Caucasus has emerged as a primary test for the president-elect’s non-interventionist yet transactional foreign policy. For decades, the dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has remained one of the world’s most volatile flashpoints, often overlooked by Western powers until violence erupts into full-scale warfare. Now, diplomats and regional analysts suggest that Donald Trump possesses a unique opportunity to secure a definitive peace treaty that his predecessors failed to finalize.
The timing is critical because the regional power balance has fundamentally shifted. Azerbaijan’s decisive military victory in 2023 effectively ended the long-standing status quo, leading to the reintegration of territory and the displacement of ethnic Armenian populations. While the immediate fighting has subsided, a formal peace agreement remains elusive. The sticking points involve border demarcation and the creation of transport corridors that would link Azerbaijan to its exclave through Armenian territory. Without a firm diplomatic hand, these technical disagreements could easily serve as a pretext for renewed hostilities in a region vital for global energy security.
Donald Trump’s previous term was characterized by a desire to avoid what he termed endless wars while simultaneously seeking legacy-defining deals. His administration’s success with the Abraham Accords demonstrated a willingness to bypass traditional diplomatic channels in favor of direct, high-stakes negotiations. Applying this same framework to the Caucasus could yield results. Unlike the current administration’s focus on democratic values and human rights, a Trump-led effort would likely emphasize the economic benefits of stability and the strategic importance of neutralizing Russian and Iranian influence in the area.
For Armenia, the situation is increasingly precarious. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signaled a desire to pivot toward the West, distancing his country from its traditional security guarantor, Russia. However, this pivot lacks a safety net. If Trump can offer security assurances or economic incentives, Armenia might be more inclined to sign a difficult peace deal. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, seeks international legitimacy for its territorial gains and a reliable partner to help develop its role as a key energy supplier to Europe. Trump’s personal brand of diplomacy, which often prioritizes personal rapport with strong leaders, could be the catalyst needed to bring President Ilham Aliyev and Pashinyan to a final agreement.
There is also the significant factor of regional competitors. Russia has long used the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict as a tool to maintain its grip on the post-Soviet space. A permanent peace deal brokered by the United States would represent a significant blow to Moscow’s regional hegemony. Similarly, Iran remains deeply concerned about any changes to its northern borders. By stepping into this vacuum, the Trump administration could reshape the strategic map of the South Caucasus in a way that favors Western commercial interests and regional stability.
Critics argue that a transactional approach might overlook the humanitarian concerns of the Armenian people or the complexities of historical grievances. However, the alternative is a cycle of periodic violence that threatens to draw in larger neighbors and disrupt global markets. The prevention of a new war in the Caucasus does not require a massive deployment of American troops or billions in foreign aid; it requires a focused diplomatic surge and the political will to force a conclusion to a thirty-year-old struggle.
As the transition of power begins in Washington, the prospect of a Trump-brokered peace stands as a rare example of a foreign policy challenge where the interests of the United States align with the immediate need for regional de-escalation. If the incoming administration chooses to prioritize this conflict, they may find that the South Caucasus is the perfect stage for a signature diplomatic victory that secures a lasting peace and prevents a preventable war.
